President Trump said Thursday that he does not plan to order new military strikes on Iran before the November midterms, pointing to what he called productive discussions with Tehran.

The statement lands against reporting the same day that the White House had already told the Pentagon to prepare options that could be used before voters go to the polls. The Washington Times reported that planning for further action was underway regardless of the public posture.

Both things can be true. A President can keep a loaded option on the table and choose not to use it, and saying so out loud is itself a form of pressure.

The talks are stuck on two specific questions. One is who controls traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The other is whether Iran retains any right to enrich uranium.

Neither is a detail. The Strait is the chokepoint a fifth of the world’s oil moves through, and enrichment is the entire argument about whether Iran ends up with a weapon.

The naval blockade the administration put in place in July is still running, and it is still cutting into Iran’s ability to sell oil. That is the revenue the regime runs on.

Trump said American forces have knocked out Iran’s navy, its air force, and the leadership structure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He called Iran a failed nation. Speaking on Thursday, he tied the campaign to Operation Epic Fury and said the pressure on the regime is working.

Earlier in the week he said the war could be over very soon and that consumer prices would come tumbling down once it is.

Iran is not behaving like a country that agrees. Independent tracking firms have counted more than a dozen strikes on ships moving through the Strait since October began.

Iranian officials have also said plainly that if American strikes resume, the retaliation will be large, and that new targets are on the list. Regional energy infrastructure is the one they keep gesturing at without naming.

So the picture at the moment is a stalemate that neither side is willing to call a stalemate. Washington says the regime is broken and the talks are productive. Tehran says the talks are meaningless and keeps hitting tankers.

The Washington Times noted that the President’s comments came amid stalled diplomacy, not a breakthrough.

What has not been said by anyone is what happens on November 4th. The decision not to strike was explicitly framed around the election. That framing has a date on it, and the date is four weeks out.